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Author Topic: COVID-19 - Talk of the day  (Read 18081 times)

Indy

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COVID-19 - Talk of the day
« on: March 13, 2020, 04:24:25 pm »
So, since it's an unavoidable topic these days, I thought: Let's open up a thread about the new coronavirus.
Say what you want about the subject of TPB, but when you're on TPB, you're likely not infecting anyone else, so... you can now always say that you're doing the world a favour by surfing TPB :)

Anyway, how's your situation?

For me, the province that I live in is under soft-quarantine. It's hit the hardest in our country. Mostly because a large part of the labour force is located here, and working at home is impossible for many people here.
Fortunately, me and my girl are in the luxury position that we can work from home and not be in contact with the outside world.
We did our groceries at the start of the week and well, got for about a month's worth of supplies, so we'd be good for a while. Just need to hope that power and internet stays online.
I want something good to die for, to make it beautiful to live.

teamfake

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Re: COVID-19 - Talk of the day
« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2020, 11:43:24 pm »
Here in the US, we seem to be unprepared for how fast this is spreading. Not enough testing kits, many aren’t taking it seriously enough while some are totally overreacting. Obviously the financial markets have taken a beating and if we can’t stop this thing we will likely be in at least a short term recession.
As far boobs go, I imagine many surgeries will have to be postponed sadly. Hopefully we can all get through this without too much loss of life and detrimental economic effects. I own a gym so we are currently deciding when or if we may have to close our doors for a period of time. Although the disease may not be too serious for healthy people, it appears to be very dangerous for older folks with other medical issues.

tybalt50

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Re: COVID-19 - Talk of the day
« Reply #2 on: March 14, 2020, 02:40:09 am »
My job requires me to travel a LOT. I live in Barcelona, and Spain is doing almost as pathetic a job of handling this as the US is. However, I'm not there most of the time. MY sister is with Doctors without Borders, and while she and her family live in Montana, where there have been no cases reported... yet, she's like me, in that she spends a lot of time away from home. She's an MD, who worked for the NIH for a few years, and she says there's no reason for us to panic. So I don't.  Although, like my sister, I'm very cautious. I wash my hands a LOT, have foregone handshaking, which isn't a problem, because handshaking isn't a huge deal, until I have to deal with Americans. (My girlfriend, who is Catalan and works for the Spanish Foreign Ministry, refers to we Americans as, "Handshaking, grinning fools.")

I find the countries I've been to that are doing the best at handling this have one thing in common: They test. In South Korea, it's the damndest thing. The government sets up stations in parking lots, where you can get tested without even leaving your car. (Their outbreaks are slowing down.) A

BoobFlex2016

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Re: COVID-19 - Talk of the day
« Reply #3 on: March 14, 2020, 04:35:52 am »
OK...so here's my 2 cents....

I don't understand -- and I admit I'm not a doctor but I do work in the health industry - I simply dont' understand why the panic *THIS TIME*.... That's not an intended slam and I'm not uninformed or ignorant so please don't direct me to any health websites.  But.... No one has been able to explain in a reasonable - logical - sane way why H1N1, MERS, SARS, and Ebola *COMBINED* didn't cause this kind of "Mad Max" "Andromeda Strain" "Day the Earth stood still" end of the world hysteria... Again, I know CoVid real... Yes, I know it has a long incubation period... Yes, I know its serious.  Yes, I know it's novel...But the 4 previous mentioned outbreaks had similar or worse components.  My friend lost a child to H1N1; almost 20k dead in the US -- 60 million infected world wide... And almost nothing was canceled.  And barely a mention on any world wide media outlets.  Why now? why this time?

 As for the fatality rates, if you remove China from the stats (And I think you have to if you are being honest), the fatality rate is lower than H1N1 and Ebola and is on par with SARS. In fact, Covid19 seems to be only causing Pneumonia in those already very susceptible to that condition (IE the elderly & sick).  These outbreaks happen about every 2 years... start in China...Go away when the weather becomes less conducive to viral spreading...  I just don't see why this CoVid is generating the panic... I'm not into conspiracy theories so I dont' think it is just "orange man bad" (IE get President Trump). But, I work in a world of rational facts and I can't get to a rational conclusion on this. 

So, if this *IS* an attempt by elites and media powers to see if they can still forward an agenda by overstating an event resulting in panic among common citizens....wow, thats really sad....  Now, pass me the Purell....  ::)
Fan of muscle control and Big flexing boobies. Willing and able to fund pec muscle control talent.  Always looking for new fake boobie flexers

Milom

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Re: COVID-19 - Talk of the day
« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2020, 05:19:26 am »
OK...so here's my 2 cents....

I don't understand -- and I admit I'm not a doctor but I do work in the health industry - I simply dont' understand why the panic *THIS TIME*.... That's not an intended slam and I'm not uninformed or ignorant so please don't direct me to any health websites.  But.... No one has been able to explain in a reasonable - logical - sane way why H1N1, MERS, SARS, and Ebola *COMBINED* didn't cause this kind of "Mad Max" "Andromeda Strain" "Day the Earth stood still" end of the world hysteria... Again, I know CoVid real... Yes, I know it has a long incubation period... Yes, I know its serious.  Yes, I know it's novel...But the 4 previous mentioned outbreaks had similar or worse components.  My friend lost a child to H1N1; almost 20k dead in the US -- 60 million infected world wide... And almost nothing was canceled.  And barely a mention on any world wide media outlets.  Why now? why this time?

50 deaths at my last count, divided by 2033 cases is a 2.4 percent fatality rate, so a little higher than china's original alarming fatality rate. And you don't know if that rate will stay that low here. The reason this is a bigger deal is because unlike those other viruses you are not symptomatic for a significant amount of time you're contagious. It spreads easily through the air, through ventilation. The high end has 160 million infected within 18 months. That's because the growth is exponential. 2 people spread to 4 people spread to 16 people on and on and on. This is why unlike any of those other viruses you mentioned, everyone is getting this.

Even at 1% fatality rate we'd be looking at almost 2 million people dead in the united states alone. World wide you'd be looking at over 100 million dead.

Don't take my word for it, just do the numbers for yourself on a calculator. Google what the CDC is saying and career virologists/epidemiologists.

I want you to try and imagine 2 million people dying in the next 18 months. Imagine the logistical problems involved in disposing of 2 million bodies.

MidnightBoobies

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Re: COVID-19 - Talk of the day
« Reply #5 on: March 14, 2020, 03:02:40 pm »
Here in the US, we seem to be unprepared for how fast this is spreading. Not enough testing kits, many aren’t taking it seriously enough while some are totally overreacting. Obviously the financial markets have taken a beating and if we can’t stop this thing we will likely be in at least a short term recession.


I've been seeing this already, I work retail and have had my hours cut due to lack of business.

aokpo

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Re: COVID-19 - Talk of the day
« Reply #6 on: March 14, 2020, 03:39:05 pm »
All Flu's are seasonal, in the tropics Apil May is the hottest months, in Northern latitudes July August. The worst should be over by then.

dajkam

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Re: COVID-19 - Talk of the day
« Reply #7 on: March 14, 2020, 04:44:23 pm »
Maybe this Coronavirus is just an opening for greater changes in the world to take place very soon. I agree with BoobFlex2016 on:

"So, if this *IS* an attempt by elites and media powers to see if they can still forward an agenda by overstating an event resulting in panic among common citizens."

I think the fuss was made to cover up a major economic crisis that was supposed to happen anyway.

I was also struck on what Jordan Peterson has said on the correlation between infectious diseases and totalitarian governments. So I suppose we would be having political changes in the world soon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmRRO6f-HXY

( Please ignore the title and the subtitles, they are in my native language. Its a part of a much longer interview)

 But anyway that's only my assumptions.
« Last Edit: March 14, 2020, 04:52:20 pm by dajkam »

fl4ppytippy

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Re: COVID-19 - Talk of the day
« Reply #8 on: March 14, 2020, 05:48:16 pm »
Maybe this Coronavirus is just an opening for greater changes in the world to take place very soon. I agree with BoobFlex2016 on:

"So, if this *IS* an attempt by elites and media powers to see if they can still forward an agenda by overstating an event resulting in panic among common citizens."

I think the fuss was made to cover up a major economic crisis that was supposed to happen anyway.

I was also struck on what Jordan Peterson has said on the correlation between infectious diseases and totalitarian governments. So I suppose we would be having political changes in the world soon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmRRO6f-HXY

( Please ignore the title and the subtitles, they are in my native language. Its a part of a much longer interview)

 But anyway that's only my assumptions.

Holy fuck! Is stupidity also as contagious??

chevychase1

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Re: COVID-19 - Talk of the day
« Reply #9 on: March 15, 2020, 01:50:15 am »
I'm more scared about it than my elderly parents, who don't seem to give a shit about it, despite me trying to convince them to change their habits.
I'm more worried about them than myself.
My sister and brother-in-law own two martial arts Dojos, and they are just beginning to panic as the cancellations have just begun.
Plus the football being suspended may mean that Liverpool's title win may never actually happen. Which is another downer.

I can barely believe that this is actually happening. ☹️

donaldtrump14

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Re: COVID-19 - Talk of the day
« Reply #10 on: March 15, 2020, 02:10:12 am »
Well....What can I say about my country.Problem is not that CORONA-VIRUS is spreading so fast But that It's scare and misinformation are spreading even more faster.People are buying masks unnecessarily and These Online Marketplace...Like Amazon etc. are making Illegal profit by selling that "SCARE".
But it's so good to see that A thread has been initiated here in this regard.And there are Multiple threads in Reddit,Twitter too...Which are trying to Calm Down the situation.

Indy

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Re: COVID-19 - Talk of the day
« Reply #11 on: March 15, 2020, 02:19:48 am »
50 deaths at my last count, divided by 2033 cases is a 2.4 percent fatality rate

What you need to keep in mind is that there are not enough testing kits available. For example, in our country, they say: "Hey, if you've tested postitive and your family is also showing signs, then you can assume they're infected too. No need  to test them". That means that those family members are infected, but do not show up as infected cases. Add to this that 10% of the US population is not insured. Another 3%are undocumented immigrants who are also not insured. Very few of them will get tested, because of the fear of going bankrupt on hospital bills.
This means that the number of 2033 was much, much higher at that time, just not registered. But those 50 deaths, yes, those are 100% documented.
That means that the mortality rate in reality is much lower.

I don't want to downplay the seriousness of this, but just trying to point out that the statistics are no longer realistic, because not every case is registered any more.
I want something good to die for, to make it beautiful to live.

Eddie_Valiant

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Re: COVID-19 - Talk of the day
« Reply #12 on: March 15, 2020, 03:04:13 am »
50 deaths at my last count, divided by 2033 cases is a 2.4 percent fatality rate

What you need to keep in mind is that there are not enough testing kits available. For example, in our country, they say: "Hey, if you've tested postitive and your family is also showing signs, then you can assume they're infected too. No need  to test them". That means that those family members are infected, but do not show up as infected cases. Add to this that 10% of the US population is not insured. Another 3%are undocumented immigrants who are also not insured. Very few of them will get tested, because of the fear of going bankrupt on hospital bills.
This means that the number of 2033 was much, much higher at that time, just not registered. But those 50 deaths, yes, those are 100% documented.
That means that the mortality rate in reality is much lower.

I don't want to downplay the seriousness of this, but just trying to point out that the statistics are no longer realistic, because not every case is registered any more.

It'll be months before a true mortality rate can be calculated. Nobody knows the bottom-end of the fraction, as only the worst  and/or most obvious cases are being tested. South Korea IMHO is the most likely nation to look to in the near future for real numbers as they have initiated a very widespread testing regimine. Here's a good article on the subject https://www.vox.com/2020/2/12/21134718/coronavirus-china-deaths-mortality-rate

Hughman

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Re: COVID-19 - Talk of the day
« Reply #13 on: March 16, 2020, 12:28:44 am »
I work in Intensive Care. Only a few cases so far but we have primary contingency planning to double bed capacity, cancel all non urgent surgery (which generates about 20% of our patients). Second line is to convert theaters into another ICU, adding a further 50% capacity

The problem is this is a bad mix. Lethal enough to make a lot of people sick, but a long incubation and early disease time making it spread pretty easily. Hospitals with capacity are seeing about 0.5% mortality. Overloaded hospitals are above 5%. That's 20 and then 200 times more deadly than seasonal flu, and it's about as communicable, maybe slightly less

888

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Re: COVID-19 - Talk of the day
« Reply #14 on: March 16, 2020, 05:20:17 pm »
OK...so here's my 2 cents....

I don't understand -- and I admit I'm not a doctor but I do work in the health industry - I simply dont' understand why the panic *THIS TIME*.... That's not an intended slam and I'm not uninformed or ignorant so please don't direct me to any health websites.  But.... No one has been able to explain in a reasonable - logical - sane way why H1N1, MERS, SARS, and Ebola *COMBINED* didn't cause this kind of "Mad Max" "Andromeda Strain" "Day the Earth stood still" end of the world hysteria... Again, I know CoVid real... Yes, I know it has a long incubation period... Yes, I know its serious.  Yes, I know it's novel...But the 4 previous mentioned outbreaks had similar or worse components.  My friend lost a child to H1N1; almost 20k dead in the US -- 60 million infected world wide... And almost nothing was canceled.  And barely a mention on any world wide media outlets.  Why now? why this time?

50 deaths at my last count, divided by 2033 cases is a 2.4 percent fatality rate, so a little higher than china's original alarming fatality rate. And you don't know if that rate will stay that low here. The reason this is a bigger deal is because unlike those other viruses you are not symptomatic for a significant amount of time you're contagious. It spreads easily through the air, through ventilation. The high end has 160 million infected within 18 months. That's because the growth is exponential. 2 people spread to 4 people spread to 16 people on and on and on. This is why unlike any of those other viruses you mentioned, everyone is getting this.

Even at 1% fatality rate we'd be looking at almost 2 million people dead in the united states alone. World wide you'd be looking at over 100 million dead.

Don't take my word for it, just do the numbers for yourself on a calculator. Google what the CDC is saying and career virologists/epidemiologists.

I want you to try and imagine 2 million people dying in the next 18 months. Imagine the logistical problems involved in disposing of 2 million bodies.
The death rate is for those who get the virus.
Even way back after WW1, the Spanish Flu only affected about 1/4 of the world. Today, it obviously is much easier to shelter people.
 There is no way 25% of Americans are going to get the virus.
Also, the death rate for people under 40 is about 0.2% (assuming no other circumstances like severe asthma). That means if you are under 40 and relatively healthy and you get COVID-19. The odds of you dying are about 500:1 against.
 There is no way America will lose anywhere near even 100,000 people.
And if that number sounds unimaginable?
Just remember that in 2017/18 - 62,000 Americans died from the flu. And America got along just fine.

« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 05:22:03 pm by 888 »

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