Author Topic: 888's furious ranting room  (Read 65626 times)

punternet

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Re: 888's furious ranting room
« Reply #15 on: March 16, 2020, 05:38:27 pm »
Quote
The death rate is for those who get the virus.
Even way back after WW1, the Spanish Flu only affected about 1/4 of the world. Today, it obviously is much easier to shelter people.
 There is no way 25% of Americans are going to get the virus.
Also, the death rate for people under 40 is about 0.2% (assuming no other circumstances like severe asthma). That means if you are under 40 and relatively healthy and you get COVID-19. The odds of you dying are about 500:1 against.
 There is no way America will lose anywhere near even 100,000 people.
And if that number sounds unimaginable?
Just remember that in 2017/18 - 62,000 Americans died from the flu. And America got along just fine.

This overlooks a few things. Covid19 is more contagious than Spanish Flu and Spanish Flu occurred when there was very little international travel. Travel has now been more or less halted but the horse is out of the stable.
As for projected total deaths, the US is looking at way more than 100K if one goes by what most authorities on immunology, virology and bio-preparedness say. Sadly we live in an age where many people think they know better than people who have dedicated their professional lives to a particular field of expertise.

888

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Re: 888's furious ranting room
« Reply #16 on: March 16, 2020, 06:07:59 pm »
Quote
The death rate is for those who get the virus.
Even way back after WW1, the Spanish Flu only affected about 1/4 of the world. Today, it obviously is much easier to shelter people.
 There is no way 25% of Americans are going to get the virus.
Also, the death rate for people under 40 is about 0.2% (assuming no other circumstances like severe asthma). That means if you are under 40 and relatively healthy and you get COVID-19. The odds of you dying are about 500:1 against.
 There is no way America will lose anywhere near even 100,000 people.
And if that number sounds unimaginable?
Just remember that in 2017/18 - 62,000 Americans died from the flu. And America got along just fine.

This overlooks a few things. Covid19 is more contagious than Spanish Flu and Spanish Flu occurred when there was very little international travel. Travel has now been more or less halted but the horse is out of the stable.
As for projected total deaths, the US is looking at way more than 100K if one goes by what most authorities on immunology, virology and bio-preparedness say. Sadly we live in an age where many people think they know better than people who have dedicated their professional lives to a particular field of expertise.

Ummm...I don't think you know what you are talking about.
1) where is your link that says that COVID-19 is more contagious than the Spanish Flu? I have seen nothing that compares the two.
2) when the Spanish Flu occurred - there was TREMENDOUS travel as WW1 was winding down and all the millions of men who got the virus in the trenches were then send home to spread it throughout the world.
3) the death rate among everyone relatively healthy under 50 is incredibly small:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
 4) China has four times as many people as America plus it started there. But it has slowed WAY down there now and they have only 3,200+ deaths.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
Unless America completely fucks up how it handles COVID-19 - there is NO WAY the death rate will get remotely near 100,000. I doubt it will even get to 5,000.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 06:13:55 pm by 888 »

tybalt50

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Re: 888's furious ranting room
« Reply #17 on: March 17, 2020, 01:14:31 am »
Quote
The death rate is for those who get the virus.
Even way back after WW1, the Spanish Flu only affected about 1/4 of the world. Today, it obviously is much easier to shelter people.
 There is no way 25% of Americans are going to get the virus.
Also, the death rate for people under 40 is about 0.2% (assuming no other circumstances like severe asthma). That means if you are under 40 and relatively healthy and you get COVID-19. The odds of you dying are about 500:1 against.
 There is no way America will lose anywhere near even 100,000 people.
And if that number sounds unimaginable?
Just remember that in 2017/18 - 62,000 Americans died from the flu. And America got along just fine.


This overlooks a few things. Covid19 is more contagious than Spanish Flu and Spanish Flu occurred when there was very little international travel. Travel has now been more or less halted but the horse is out of the stable.
As for projected total deaths, the US is looking at way more than 100K if one goes by what most authorities on immunology, virology and bio-preparedness say. Sadly we live in an age where many people think they know better than people who have dedicated their professional lives to a particular field of expertise.

Ummm...I don't think you know what you are talking about.
1) where is your link that says that COVID-19 is more contagious than the Spanish Flu? I have seen nothing that compares the two.
2) when the Spanish Flu occurred - there was TREMENDOUS travel as WW1 was winding down and all the millions of men who got the virus in the trenches were then send home to spread it throughout the world.
3) the death rate among everyone relatively healthy under 50 is incredibly small:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
 4) China has four times as many people as America plus it started there. But it has slowed WAY down there now and they have only 3,200+ deaths.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
Unless America completely fucks up how it handles COVID-19 - there is NO WAY the death rate will get remotely near 100,000. I doubt it will even get to 5,000.


We don't know if it's slowed down in China. And if it is slowing, it's because China is MUCH more aggressive with it than we are. (Your temperature is taken when you enter and exit public places, and if you have even a slight fever, you're sent to a 'fever clinic, where you're tested. If negative you go your way, if positive, you're quarantined. No self quarantine once you're diagnosed.)Our problem is we haven't taken it as seriously as we should. So long as  the US isn't  testing, no one knows what you're up against.  So as it stands right now, America is fucking this up royally.  Testing should've started a month ago, if not sooner. The WHO offered tests, but the trump administration declined. Leaders refuse to listen to experts, and are even going so far as trying to muzzle experts, whose transparency is crucial to handling situations like this. (If you can't trust the only people who can properly combat it, you're doomed.) Politicians are in charge of the response. Politicians whose only focus is protecting their position. Under normal conditions, I'd agree with you that the US could control the rate and the casualties, but the fact is where the US now is where S. Korea was two weeks ago. The difference being S. Korea is testing more people in a week than we've tested from the outset, so they're getting a handle on it. God only knows what it's going to be like as it escalates in the US. The tests are crucial. As is leadership having a consistent message. The president can't be claiming it's a hoax on fox news and then going to a press briefing with his response team, trying to act as if he's serious. And he HAS to denounce the people who are disseminating conspiracy theories and outright lies.  And lastly, someone has to simply go on television and tell people hording toilet paper or any other commodity is only going to make matters worse. America needs leaders who inspire people to think of each other instead of just themselves. Good luck with that.

888

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Re: 888's furious ranting room
« Reply #18 on: March 17, 2020, 08:53:00 am »
Quote
The death rate is for those who get the virus.
Even way back after WW1, the Spanish Flu only affected about 1/4 of the world. Today, it obviously is much easier to shelter people.
 There is no way 25% of Americans are going to get the virus.
Also, the death rate for people under 40 is about 0.2% (assuming no other circumstances like severe asthma). That means if you are under 40 and relatively healthy and you get COVID-19. The odds of you dying are about 500:1 against.
 There is no way America will lose anywhere near even 100,000 people.
And if that number sounds unimaginable?
Just remember that in 2017/18 - 62,000 Americans died from the flu. And America got along just fine.


This overlooks a few things. Covid19 is more contagious than Spanish Flu and Spanish Flu occurred when there was very little international travel. Travel has now been more or less halted but the horse is out of the stable.
As for projected total deaths, the US is looking at way more than 100K if one goes by what most authorities on immunology, virology and bio-preparedness say. Sadly we live in an age where many people think they know better than people who have dedicated their professional lives to a particular field of expertise.

Ummm...I don't think you know what you are talking about.
1) where is your link that says that COVID-19 is more contagious than the Spanish Flu? I have seen nothing that compares the two.
2) when the Spanish Flu occurred - there was TREMENDOUS travel as WW1 was winding down and all the millions of men who got the virus in the trenches were then send home to spread it throughout the world.
3) the death rate among everyone relatively healthy under 50 is incredibly small:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
 4) China has four times as many people as America plus it started there. But it has slowed WAY down there now and they have only 3,200+ deaths.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
Unless America completely fucks up how it handles COVID-19 - there is NO WAY the death rate will get remotely near 100,000. I doubt it will even get to 5,000.


We don't know if it's slowed down in China. And if it is slowing, it's because China is MUCH more aggressive with it than we are. (Your temperature is taken when you enter and exit public places, and if you have even a slight fever, you're sent to a 'fever clinic, where you're tested. If negative you go your way, if positive, you're quarantined. No self quarantine once you're diagnosed.)Our problem is we haven't taken it as seriously as we should. So long as  the US isn't  testing, no one knows what you're up against.  So as it stands right now, America is fucking this up royally.  Testing should've started a month ago, if not sooner. The WHO offered tests, but the trump administration declined. Leaders refuse to listen to experts, and are even going so far as trying to muzzle experts, whose transparency is crucial to handling situations like this. (If you can't trust the only people who can properly combat it, you're doomed.) Politicians are in charge of the response. Politicians whose only focus is protecting their position. Under normal conditions, I'd agree with you that the US could control the rate and the casualties, but the fact is where the US now is where S. Korea was two weeks ago. The difference being S. Korea is testing more people in a week than we've tested from the outset, so they're getting a handle on it. God only knows what it's going to be like as it escalates in the US. The tests are crucial. As is leadership having a consistent message. The president can't be claiming it's a hoax on fox news and then going to a press briefing with his response team, trying to act as if he's serious. And he HAS to denounce the people who are disseminating conspiracy theories and outright lies.  And lastly, someone has to simply go on television and tell people hording toilet paper or any other commodity is only going to make matters worse. America needs leaders who inspire people to think of each other instead of just themselves. Good luck with that.
China has been straight up the whole time about their numbers (especially once they realized they could not contain the outbreak easily) - why would they stop now? Even the WHO agrees their numbers seem right. And considering they basically forced everyone in the affected regions to stay home - it makes sense that the numbers are way down.
Also, it's slowing down in South Korea as well.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

But you are right, the western governments have REALLY dropped the ball on this. I despise big government. But this is one time where big government is EXACTLY what we need.
 The government should immediately do what they did in San Francisco yesterday - force everyone to stay home except for essentials. And close every business except for essentials (pharmacies and grocery stores).
 
But I disagree that testing is crucial. What is testing going to do? You cannot test everyone. And if you test someone who has symptoms - it's too late...they have already spread it around to dozens of others probably.
And LOTS of people with COVID-19 are asymptomatic/have minimal symptoms - so they have no idea they even have it to be tested for it...but are spreading the virus around anyway.
 Remember if someone has COVID-19 and touches a door handles, that door handle will be 'infected' for at least 24 hours (depending on what it is made of) to everyone whom touches it.

Locking down everyone is the ONLY way to guarantee stopping COVID-19.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 11:14:50 am by 888 »

888

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Re: 888's furious ranting room
« Reply #19 on: March 17, 2020, 06:06:42 pm »

Locking down everyone is the ONLY way to guarantee stopping COVID-19.

You can't stop it with this, but you can slow it down.
Of course you can stop it with this. That is exactly what China did and it has worked exceedingly well. their total number of cases has been drastically cut.
 I am not saying I agree or disagree with the policy personally.
But if ending COVID-19 as quickly as possible is the goal - the fastest and most effective way to do it is lock everyone and everything not important down tight.

1angryscot

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Re: 888's furious ranting room
« Reply #20 on: March 17, 2020, 11:53:40 pm »

Locking down everyone is the ONLY way to guarantee stopping COVID-19.

You can't stop it with this, but you can slow it down.
Quote
The death rate is for those who get the virus.
Even way back after WW1, the Spanish Flu only affected about 1/4 of the world. Today, it obviously is much easier to shelter people.
 There is no way 25% of Americans are going to get the virus.
Also, the death rate for people under 40 is about 0.2% (assuming no other circumstances like severe asthma). That means if you are under 40 and relatively healthy and you get COVID-19. The odds of you dying are about 500:1 against.
 There is no way America will lose anywhere near even 100,000 people.
And if that number sounds unimaginable?
Just remember that in 2017/18 - 62,000 Americans died from the flu. And America got along just fine.


This overlooks a few things. Covid19 is more contagious than Spanish Flu and Spanish Flu occurred when there was very little international travel. Travel has now been more or less halted but the horse is out of the stable.
As for projected total deaths, the US is looking at way more than 100K if one goes by what most authorities on immunology, virology and bio-preparedness say. Sadly we live in an age where many people think they know better than people who have dedicated their professional lives to a particular field of expertise.

Ummm...I don't think you know what you are talking about.
1) where is your link that says that COVID-19 is more contagious than the Spanish Flu? I have seen nothing that compares the two.
2) when the Spanish Flu occurred - there was TREMENDOUS travel as WW1 was winding down and all the millions of men who got the virus in the trenches were then send home to spread it throughout the world.
3) the death rate among everyone relatively healthy under 50 is incredibly small:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
 4) China has four times as many people as America plus it started there. But it has slowed WAY down there now and they have only 3,200+ deaths.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
Unless America completely fucks up how it handles COVID-19 - there is NO WAY the death rate will get remotely near 100,000. I doubt it will even get to 5,000.


We don't know if it's slowed down in China. And if it is slowing, it's because China is MUCH more aggressive with it than we are. (Your temperature is taken when you enter and exit public places, and if you have even a slight fever, you're sent to a 'fever clinic, where you're tested. If negative you go your way, if positive, you're quarantined. No self quarantine once you're diagnosed.)Our problem is we haven't taken it as seriously as we should. So long as  the US isn't  testing, no one knows what you're up against.  So as it stands right now, America is fucking this up royally.  Testing should've started a month ago, if not sooner. The WHO offered tests, but the trump administration declined. Leaders refuse to listen to experts, and are even going so far as trying to muzzle experts, whose transparency is crucial to handling situations like this. (If you can't trust the only people who can properly combat it, you're doomed.) Politicians are in charge of the response. Politicians whose only focus is protecting their position. Under normal conditions, I'd agree with you that the US could control the rate and the casualties, but the fact is where the US now is where S. Korea was two weeks ago. The difference being S. Korea is testing more people in a week than we've tested from the outset, so they're getting a handle on it. God only knows what it's going to be like as it escalates in the US. The tests are crucial. As is leadership having a consistent message. The president can't be claiming it's a hoax on fox news and then going to a press briefing with his response team, trying to act as if he's serious. And he HAS to denounce the people who are disseminating conspiracy theories and outright lies.  And lastly, someone has to simply go on television and tell people hording toilet paper or any other commodity is only going to make matters worse. America needs leaders who inspire people to think of each other instead of just themselves. Good luck with that.
China has been straight up the whole time about their numbers - why would they stop now? Even the WHO agrees their numbers seem right. And considering they basically forced everyone in the affected regions to stay home - it makes sense that the numbers are way down.
Also, it's slowing down in South Korea as well.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/

But you are right, the western governments have REALLY dropped the ball on this. I despise big government. But this is one time where big government is EXACTLY what we need.
 The government should immediately do what they did in San Francisco yesterday - force everyone to stay home except for essentials. And close every business except for essentials (pharmacies and grocery stores).
 
But I disagree that testing is crucial. What is testing going to do? You cannot test everyone. And if you test someone who has symptoms - it's too late...they have already spread it around to dozens of others probably.
And LOTS of people with COVID-19 are asymptomatic/have minimal symptoms - so they have no idea they even have it to be tested for it...but are spreading the virus around anyway.
 Remember if someone has COVID-19 and touches a door handles, that door handle will be 'infected' for at least 24 hours (depending on what it is made of) to everyone whom touches it.

Locking down everyone is the ONLY way to guarantee stopping COVID-19.

"China has been straight up the whole time about their numbers." Are you fucking kidding me?

888

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Re: 888's furious ranting room
« Reply #21 on: March 18, 2020, 11:11:44 am »
Are you fucking kidding me?
So my ENTIRE post about a virus that is killing thousands...and all you thought to question was that sentence. Shit man - try and remember the subject here...people dying. What's next? A problem with syntax? Spelling?
Look, maybe I exaggerated a bit. And I do NOT trust the Chinese government. But okay - where is your link to unbiased, factual proof that the numbers coming out of China are wrong. Not guesses or assumptions...factual proof?
Go ahead - please enlighten us all with your vast knowledge on this.

🤦‍♂️

But the point of the whole thread is COVID-19.
And I am saying that shutting down everything - like China did - works.
And the WHO agrees.
'The World Health Organization (WHO) said Tuesday that measures to restrict people's movement in China amid the COVID-19 outbreak are a correct strategic and tactical approach, and WHO would like to see progressive implementation of public health measures.'
http://www.ecns.cn/news/2020-02-19/detail-ifztrmvi9826654.shtml

Or do you know more than the WHO on this?

Plus, Singapore and South Korea are doing similarly and they are also seeing new case reductions.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-korea/
Or is South Korea lying as well?
🤦‍♂️
« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 07:11:09 pm by 888 »

888

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Re: 888's furious ranting room
« Reply #22 on: March 18, 2020, 07:05:01 pm »
Initially in January the identification rate of Corona infected was 14%. They increased it to 60%. 40% still go unidentified. And this are based on numbers from China.

You can't stop it. You can only slow it down.

And your link to these statistics is.... (I am not saying they are wrong - I would just like to see them myself)?

Of course you can stop it.
If everyone is locked down in their homes - how can the virus spread? It doesn't penetrate walls.

Bill Ackman is DEAD right about this, IMO:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bill-ackman-pleads-to-trump-to-increase-closures-to-save-the-economy-shut-it-down-now.html
America - and the world - has to go into lockdown mode NOW.
The faster they do that - like they did in China - the faster this thing will peak and slowly go away.
Half measures - like they are using now - does nothing but panic everyone and drag out the crisis.
The DOW is down over 2,000 points again today - so far (despite GIGANTIC stimuli from government/the Fed).
Half measures do NOTHING.
Full lockdown is required.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 07:14:02 pm by 888 »

tybalt50

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Re: 888's furious ranting room
« Reply #23 on: March 19, 2020, 02:25:53 am »
The bottom line is it would be difficult if not impossible to implement the things they do in China right now. Imagine this: A farmer from rural Missouri goes to his local town to buy supplies. As he tries to enter a store, there's a guy in protective gear, insisting to take his temperature. Yeah, that's going to go real well. And should a minor miracle ensue and the farmer agrees to have his temperature taken, heaven forbid he has a fever, and they try to send him to a 'fever clinic' to be tested. And if, by some damned miracle, you get him to go to the fever clinic, and he tests positive, what do you think are the chances he'll go AND STAY in a 'quarantine hotel' until he's well?

What I just chronicled is what they do in China. The measures were easy to implement  there because 1. They went through this before with SARS, and 2. They're used to being treated this way. Americans? Not so much. There are Americans throwing hissy fits every ten years, because  they think the government is snooping on them via the Census. A guy in Virginia drove his car into a crowd, killing a woman, because the government was taking a statue down. There are Americans who are ready and willing to literally go to war with their state government, because of laws requiring their children to be vaccinated. How do you think rural America would react to being sent to quarantine hotels?  Moreover, the aluminum foil beanie conspiracy theorists would have a field day, claiming all sorts of things. You think it's chaotic in the US now, let's just see what a mandated lockdown would look like.

There was a reason President Obama provided a seat at the National Security Council table for infectious disease control, and there's a reason that up until very recently, the CDC and NIH had international operations all over the world. American leaders with an ounce of foresight realize the problem isn't a pandemic as much as it's trying to deal with that pandemic in a society that insists on freedom at all costs. So the trick  up to now has been to try to prevent the outbreak from reaching you.  Unfortunately, that ship has already sailed.

I'm in Europe right now, and I'm lucky, because my job allows a modicum of 'freedom.' I dare say most Americans wouldn't think of this as freedom at all.  And everywhere I go, I find myself constantly thinking, "There's no goddamned way Americans would go for this."

I have news for you: Americans are gonna have to. America's on a trajectory for untold thousands if not millions of people getting this virus.The US government botched this from the outset, they continue to botch it and the cost for all that botching is going to be steep.

booberman46

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Re: 888's furious ranting room
« Reply #24 on: March 19, 2020, 03:23:30 am »
i'm in Australia and we are not on lock-down yet thank god we have a bit over 500 cases of people that have contracted the virus and less than 30 people who have died from it. we have stopped all international flights from leaving and coming in to the contry and our government has told us that we can not host a gathering of more than100 people with in a closed up area and no more than 500 people in a open area. so far it seems to be working

wendyk

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Re: 888's furious ranting room
« Reply #25 on: March 19, 2020, 11:12:46 am »
The conspiracy theorist is me notes how China lost a few thousand citizens and infected every major democracy following a clamp down on their own soil. Trillions more wiped out from their sanctioning enemies, while they reopen stores.

Fiction or fact as it may be there are 3 truths I hope the world never forgets:

1) This virus, like many before it, came from China. Western scientists confirm this as they have with SARs, Swine Flu etc.

2) China should never have been allowed to permeate so far into world markets. Our greed for profit did this.

3) The world is paying for cost its own complacency i.e. a lack of a coordinated pandemic protocol has left us vulnerable.

Indy

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Re: 888's furious ranting room
« Reply #26 on: March 19, 2020, 12:56:48 pm »
While I was ZERO attacking you, the moderators or owners removed my reply to you as it contained an answer they don't want to see published. So forget it.

You were voicing your discontent about a staff decision openly. While the rest of the post was fine, the post has been removed.
I want something good to die for, to make it beautiful to live.

chevychase1

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Re: 888's furious ranting room
« Reply #27 on: March 19, 2020, 10:41:54 pm »
Now, as well as my 72-year-old parents not taking this seriously, my 80-year-old next-door neighbour isn't taking it seriously.

The Prime Minister's 79-year-old dad has been on the TV, and he isn't taking it seriously. I despair.

tybalt50

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Re: 888's furious ranting room
« Reply #28 on: March 20, 2020, 01:10:28 am »
Now, as well as my 72-year-old parents not taking this seriously, my 80-year-old next-door neighbour isn't taking it seriously.

The Prime Minister's 79-year-old dad has been on the TV, and he isn't taking it seriously. I despair.

Denial is hard to combat. People look at this the way they look at Climate Change. I don't see it because it's cold where I am, so that means it isn't happening. Likewise, if you haven't seen someone with it near you, you're going to conclude it isn't happening. Viral pneumonia, which is essentially what COVID-19 is an ugly ailment with long-term effects. You never get full lung function back. So I'm going to listen to smart people, like those at the WHO, who KNOW. Not those who are making conjecture, and doing the equivalent of rubbing a rabbit's foot.

TickleTheo

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Re: 888's furious ranting room
« Reply #29 on: March 20, 2020, 08:38:24 am »
The problem for most people is they mostly lack either the connections to ask actual medical professionals for their opinion or these days. Purely obtaining news from the headlines instead of distilling what those headlines actually mean.

I mean, every medical professional I know or keep up with were concerned with COVID-19 early on. Yet the majority of the news media stayed focus on "the numbers" instead of understanding what the numbers actually meant. So instead of preparing for the coming storm or the warnings of what worse case scenarios would look like. The media kept downplaying the issue until it became a much bigger problem than it should be.

Notice how one side of the media continually pushes blaming "China" for this? People can't seem to understand that blaming China doesn't do anything aside from push anger onto a country that actually is getting their pandemic under control. The other side of the media points how unprepared we are and how 2 months of lead time resulted in nothing happening till now.

People have a hard time blaming a strand of RNA that they can't see with their own eyes.

What needs to happen is the government actually doing its freaking job and assisting the people that it is supposed to be serving instead of passing responsibility or the blame.

The best thing the general public can do at the moment is to have as much of the populace avoid contracting COVID-19 all at once.  Once hospitals hit capacity, the doctors will be starting to decide who lives/dies based on the likelihood of survival. This is what is happening in Italy now and what was happening in China months ago. So the older you are, the higher chance you get passed over for a younger patient.

The more people can slow the rate of infection over the coming months will decide how many dead we bury at the end of all this.

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